Estimations, Appetites, and Feasibility... not the same

Planted Sep 2021 Tended 4 years ago Linked from 1 note

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Appetite, in my experience (IME), should be based on a desired outcome.

We have a 3 week appetite for improving X as seen in pitch Y

Feasibility analysis, IME, should be a question that a collaborative shaping/discovery crew asks itself (led by a tech lead) when considering pitches and potential solutions within pitches.

We have three pitches (or multiple solutions within a pitch)… which lives at the cross-section of most feasible, usable, viable, and valuable given the appetite boundaries set?

Estimation, IME, should be a communication tool only. Not a commitment or target. A communication tool that helps us understand the complexity and overall feasibility of the potential solutions. Ideally estimations are only used once a project has started.

Another use of estimations is within the circuit breaker decision (we didn’t complete the project that was intended to result in the desired outcome within the set appetite… so we now need to make a decision on whether or not we should continue the bet on this solution) to determine if we are going to “call” this “raised bet”.

This two-part philosophical divergence is by far the biggest distinction between pure ShapeUp and a derivative I like to call Empowered ShapeUp.

Pure ShapeUpEmpowered ShapeUp
AppetiteBased on a full pitch; a problem and a solution, combinedBased purely on a desired outcome whenever possible
Desired OutcomesThe betting table asks themselves “would I do this again”The desired outcome and the proposed solutions form a hypothesis that is measured

All of this is different from a Target or a High-Integrity Commitment

A Target is a date that communicates what would be an ideal delivery timeline. A High-integrity commitment is a date that the team has truly committed to hitting. These are dangerous, especially if you start to stack them, because estimation is really hard, so if you are off on one HIC, it will cascade to being off on the others as well.

Short version… work with Appetites and short cycles, and you’ll be great. When folks ask you for a HIC, explain that you’ll need to stop all other work and everything will be delayed, because you don’t miss HICs, so they have to come first if they exist at all