Escalation

Escalation is a systems archetype which describes when one actor in a system does something which another actor sees as a threat, so the other actor take measures to protect themselves which magnify the perceived threat to the first actor, who responds by taking further such measures. Structurally, this situation is comprised of two balancing feedback loops, with each actor trying to balance out the perceived threat to themselves, but these connected loops together form a reinforcing feedback loop, leading to unsustainable growth of the perceived threat and countermeasures.

Example

An “arms race” is one example of the escalation archetype which is so representative as to be synonymous with it.

Strategies

• The best way to break a pattern of escalation is to understand and eliminate the assumptions that cause participants to feel insecure and to perceive each other as a threat. This is, of course, quite a bit easier to do when the parties are individuals or teams you manage than when they are sovereign nation-states in the case of an actual arms race, though in both cases the solution may involve finding common ground on which to build a structural alliance. Perhaps one reason there have been no world wars since the mid 20th century is that the major European powers who had formerly destroyed each other proceeded to knit their economies together to such a degree that it would be against one power’s own self-interest to attack another, reducing the threat of that occurring.
• Unilateral de-escalation is another, albeit more risky, strategy. Since all reinforcing feedback loops can be driven in reverse, if one party to an arms race were to dramatically and publicly cease the buildup of arms, the threat to the other party would be reduced, allowing them to respond in kind by reducing their arms (after all, weapons are expensive to build and maintain, so all parties have an underlying incentive against escalation).