Indiana climate projections for 2050

From American Resiliency, a nonprofit dedicated to sharing taxpayer-funded, state-and-local-level climate research that the Trump administration is trying to bury.

Climate Changes

Now that the world has blown past 1.5℃ of warming since pre-industrial levels, the current best-case scenario is 2℃ of warming by 2050 (which could be much worse if we hit tipping points). If that case holds:

Temperatures

• Indiana is projected to be slightly above that at 4-5℉ warmer on average. This means:
  • 5-10 more hot days (>95℉) per year: These bring increased danger of heatstroke, especially for vulnerable populations.
  • 15-25 more warm nights (>70℉) per year: these are nights where it’s too hot for the human body to sleep comfortably without AC. These will also significantly reduce corn yields, as corn depends on a cycle of hot days and cool nights.
  • 20-25 fewer cold days (<32℉) per year
  • 9 fewer very cold days (<0℉) per year: that’s nearly all of the very cold days we’ve had this winter
• Overall, northern Indiana’s climate in 2050 will look a lot like southern Indiana’s (or even Kentucky’s) today

Precipitation

• Central Indiana will see a 5-10% increase in precipitation (1-2” annually), less around Terra Haute
• 5-year storms will have 5-10% heavier precipitation
• This will increase flooding, especially around rivers. Flood-prone areas will flood more and more often.

Growing

• In addition to corn yields suffering from the increase in warm nights…
• Here in Indianapolis, my current USDA plant hardiness zone, 6b, is projected to be 7b by 2050, changing the kinds of plants able to grow
• Increased precipitation, mostly in the form of eroding rain rather than non-eroding snow (due to increased temperatures), will increase soil erosion and runoff without mitigation efforts

Some Risks Avoided

• Despite higher temperatures, there is no projected increase in wildfires, as Indiana forests are not particularly wildfire-prone. Though neighboring states are not so lucky, so our air quality may still suffer from regional wildfires.
• A local decrease in ragweed pollen for those allergic
• Groundwater availability is predicted to remain stable, although Indiana currently has some of the lowest-quality groundwater in the nation (we’re working on it)
• Indiana is investing heavily in infrastructure to prepare for this, though the Republican-led state claims it’s unrelated to climate adaptation.

Indiana is part of a “lifeboat region” around the Great Lakes that is somewhat protected from the global rise in sea levels, temperatures, and wildfire risk. That’s not to say we’ll be fine by any means, but that the state may see increased migration as the situation deteriorates more for our neighbors.