Indiana climate projections for 2050

From American Resiliency, a nonprofit dedicated to sharing taxpayer-funded, state-and-local-level climate research that the Trump administration is trying to bury.

Climate Changes

Now that the world has blown past 1.5℃ of warming since pre-industrial levels, the current best-case scenario is 2℃ of warming by 2050 (which could be much worse if we hit tipping points). If that case holds:

Temperatures

• Indiana is projected to be slightly above that at 4-5℉ warmer on average. This means:
  • 5-10 more hot days (>95℉) per year: These bring increased danger of heatstroke, especially for vulnerable populations.
  • 15-25 more warm nights (>70℉) per year: these are nights where it’s too hot for the human body to sleep comfortably without AC. These will also significantly reduce corn yields, as corn depends on a cycle of hot days and cool nights.
  • 20-25 fewer cold days (<32℉) per year
  • 9 fewer very cold days (<0℉) per year: that’s nearly all of the very cold days we’ve had this winter
• Overall, northern Indiana’s climate in 2050 will look a lot like southern Indiana’s (or even Kentucky’s) today

Precipitation

• Central Indiana will see a 5-10% increase in precipitation (1-2” annually), less around Terra Haute
• 5-year storms will have 5-10% heavier precipitation
• This will increase flooding, especially around rivers. Flood-prone areas will flood more and more often.

Growing

• In addition to corn yields suffering from the increase in warm nights…
• Here in Indianapolis, my current USDA plant hardiness zone, 6b, is projected to be 7b by 2050, changing the kinds of plants able to grow
• Increased precipitation, mostly in the form of eroding rain rather than non-eroding snow (due to increased temperatures), will increase soil erosion and runoff without mitigation efforts

Some Risks Avoided

• Despite higher temperatures, there is no projected increase in wildfires, as Indiana forests are not particularly wildfire-prone. Though neighboring states are not so lucky, so our air quality may still suffer from regional wildfires.
• A local decrease in ragweed pollen for those allergic
• Groundwater availability is predicted to remain stable, although Indiana currently has some of the lowest-quality groundwater in the nation (we’re working on it)
• Indiana is investing heavily in infrastructure to prepare for this, though the Republican-led state claims it’s unrelated to climate adaptation.